1U.S. equities on March 30 delivered a mixed session as rising energy prices clashed with a selloff in the technology sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up +49.50 points (+0.11%) to close at 45,216.14, while the S&P 500 fell -0.39% to 6,343.72 and the Nasdaq declined -0.73% to 20,794.64. Fed Chair Powell, speaking at Harvard, said "rates are in a good place" and signaled caution on rate hikes despite the oil surge triggered by the Iran war.
2With the de facto blockade of the Strait of HormuzStrait of HormuzA roughly 33km-wide strait connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Approximately 20% of the world's oil shipments pass through here. Located between Iran and Oman, it serves as the main artery for Middle Eastern crude exports. continuing, WTI crude closed at +3.25% at $102.88. The energy sector has posted an overwhelming YTD gain of +22%. Meanwhile, the technology sector remained under pressure, falling more than -1%, with Micron Technology (MU) extending its post-earnings slide with a -10% drop. Concerns over reduced AI memory demand from Google's TurboQuant algorithm weighed on the entire semiconductor complex.
3The flight to safety continued, pushing the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.36% (-8bp). The VIXVIX (Fear Index)A volatility index derived from S&P 500 option prices. Readings below 20 indicate stability, while readings above 30 signal elevated anxiety. Also known as the "fear gauge." remained elevated at 25.33. USD/JPY traded at 159.65 (-0.38%). Gold hit $4,524, up +15% YTD. Bitcoin was flat at $66,500. Key events this week include the ISM Manufacturing PMIISM Manufacturing PMIThe Purchasing Managers' Index published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates economic expansion; below 50 signals contraction. Widely regarded as a leading economic indicator. on April 1 and the employment report on April 3 (Good Friday, market closed).
Fed Chair Powell Says "Rates Are in a Good Place" — No Hike Needed Despite Iran War Oil Surge
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at Harvard on March 30, said "rates are in a good place" despite the surge in oil prices triggered by the Iran war, reaffirming a cautious stance on rate hikes. Powell noted that "by the time the full effects of monetary tightening filter through the economy, the oil shock will likely have passed. It would burden the economy at an inopportune time." He assessed that inflation expectations remain "well anchored beyond the near term," while adding that "it is critically important to closely monitor inflation expectations." Following his remarks, the probability of a rate hike by December fell to 2.2%.
Photo: Pexels
Photo: Pexels
Photo: Pexels
Photo: Pexels
Photo: Pexels
Photo: Pexels
"Oil Shock vs. AI Reassessment" — The Anatomy of a Bifurcated Market
The U.S. equity market in Q1 2026 is grappling with a bifurcation that few anticipated. The energy sector has staged a historic rally of +22% year-to-date, while the technology sector — which led markets for the past three years — has entered a correction.
The structure of this bifurcation is clear. The Strait of Hormuz blockade, a classic "supply shock," has driven energy prices sharply higher and caused oil-related earnings to explode. ExxonMobil is up +35% YTD, Chevron +40%. Meanwhile, the tech sector faces a triple headwind: (1) cost pressures and macro slowdown fears from elevated oil prices, (2) questions about AI investment efficiency exemplified by Google's TurboQuant, and (3) the unwinding of stretched valuations.
Chair Powell's March 30 address clarified the Fed's policy stance toward this crisis. "We will not raise rates. The oil shock is transitory. By the time the tightening takes full effect, the shock will have passed." This provided relief to markets, but the question remains whether "transitory" will truly prove to be transitory.
This week, all eyes are on the April 1 ISM Manufacturing PMI (consensus 52.3) and the April 3 employment report (consensus +57,000 vs. prior -92,000). If the manufacturing PMI breaks below 50, recession fears will surge. If the jobs number disappoints, "stagflation" will dominate headlines.
The unusual scheduling of the employment report on Good Friday, when equity markets are closed, adds another layer of risk. The futures market may not be able to fully digest the data, concentrating risk into the following Monday's open.
From a portfolio standpoint, excessive concentration in energy carries its own risks. Iran's limited reopening of the strait (allowing transit for five countries) suggests that geopolitical risk is not unidirectional, and crude prices could reverse sharply. Whether the tech sector's valuation compression represents a "buying opportunity" or a "trend reversal" may well be determined by this week's economic data.
